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Monday, August 30, 2010

Mountain West Preview

Air Force

Last Year

Troy Calhoun has done an excellent job here since he took over the Falcons three years ago, winning 25 games, including a bowl win last season. They run the ball well, rarely passing and play tough defense. Last year they were 3rd nationally in rushing and 5th in pass defense. The problem with Air Force is not how good they are, because they are really good, but how good the top three teams, BYU, TCU and Utah are. For the time being, the Falcons may have to make do with being fourth and contending for bowls. Last season, of their five losses, only one was by more 7 points (BYU). Of their wins, the closest was a 10-0 victory over Wyoming, and that includes blasting Houston 47-20 in the Armed Forces Bowl. They're well drilled; they don't lose to teams they should beat; and they play without enough discipline and skill to scare the Big 3 in the division. Last year, TCU beat them on a FG, and Utah won in OT. Can they pick up a few shock wins this season?

Offense

AF has the pleasure of having not one capable QB, but two. Tim Jefferson (57% comp, 848 yds, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 88-254-4) is the unquestioned starter and a safe passer, while Connor Dietz (47.4% comp, 197 yds, 1 TD) is the better runner but doesn't have Jefferson's grasp of the offense. The important thing is that they can win with either. The RBs are key in this offense and the Falcons have a couple of good ones. FB Jared Tew (238-970-9) is more of a big TB than an option FB, but he runs hard and has a little wiggle in the hole. He was 2nd Team MWC last season. Asher Clark (151-865-7) doesn't relish contact as much as the stereotype academy Back, running out of bounds instead of fighting for that extra yard, but he's still their best TB. The reserve strength is good too. Unlike most teams, Air Force isn't overly concerned about replacing their whole offensive line. Their lines are traditionally small due to academy entrance restrictions, but always athletic and well drilled. This year's unit shouldn't be any different. Sophomore LT Jason Kons, senior LG Tyler Schonscheck, junior Center Michael Hester, junior RG AJ Wallerstein and senior RT Chase Darden may see a little slip from last year's production, but don't doubt they'll be in the top 10 in rushing again this season. Depth is inexperienced but they'll know their assignments and be ready to play if need be. WR Kevin Fogler (25-567-5) is as productive a receiver as Air Force could possibly have. Despite lacking great speed, he's tall, athletic and whip smart. The other receiver is Jonathon Warzeka (18-246-1), who's a reliable possession guy. TE Chaz Demerath (5-25-0) is capable of better production if given the chance. This offense will continue to give co-ordinators headaches this season.

Defense

For a team that rarely has a defensive lineman weighing more than 250 lbs to allow 134 ypg rushing is remarkable. Yet Air Force has been tough to run on the last four years. They only return five starters this year, with one of them a DL, so they could be tested. Rick Ricketts (57 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 4 sacks) returns at End this season after being a 2nd Team MWC choice last year. Joining him at the other End will be senior Wylie Wikstrom (15 tkls, 1 sack), who started 2 games. The NT will be junior Ryan Gardner (11 tkls, 2 tfls). Depth is solid. Only one Linebacker returns, OLB Andre Morris (65 tkls, 3.5 tfls, 3 sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 INT), who was voted 2nd Team MWC. Opposite him will be junior Wale Lawal (31 tkls, 1.5 tfls, 1.5 sacks, 1 PBU), who started 4 as a freshman. Inside will be junior Brady Amack (15 tkls) and sophomore James Chambers (2 tkls). The inexperience may lead to some mistakes, but there is experienced reserve strength ready to step in. The secondary was superb last season, and this year's edition should be just as good with three starters back. Corners Anthony Wright (54 tkls, 4 tfls, 4 PBUs, 7 INTs), who was 1st Team MWC, and Reggie Rembert (43 tkls, 1.5 tfls, 1 sacks, 2 PBUs, 3 INTs), who was 2nd Team, will lock down opposing receivers again this season. Both are a threat to score on interception returns. Jon Davis (56 tkls, 1 sack, 2 PBUs, 3 INTs) returns at FS and will be joined by sophomore SS Brian Lindsay (5 tackles). There is quality depth too. There might be a dropoff in run defense, but the secondary should be dominant again this year.

Special Teams

Erik Soderberg's (38/40 PATs, 22/30 FGs – 50 long) kicking is something of an adventure over 30 yards, but the Falcons are happy with him. Senior Keil Bartholomew takes over at Punter after Brandon Geyer graduated, but he failed to impress in camp. Rembert (25.1) and Warzeka (27.9, 1 TD) will return kicks again after both were excellent last year, while Wright (18.2, 1 TD) is an explosive PR. The kick coverage unit allowed a TD despite being otherwise solid, but the punt coverage was very good. Bartholomew is the key to this being one of the top units in the FBS again this season.

Next Season

There are questions this season regarding the offensive and defensive lines, but being Air Force, both will probably be solid. Their OOC schedule starts with an (assumedly) easy game at home to Northwestern State, but later brings a trip to Oklahoma, home to Navy and away to Army. In the conference, they travel to resurgent Wyoming and TCU, but get BYU and Utah at home. This is important, because the Cougars are beatable this year. The Falcons will make another bowl game and win 8 or 9 games, but the big question this season is whether they can break Navy's stranglehold on the Commander-in-Chief trophy. Army are improving, but aren't quite there yet, so Falcons fans should pencil 2nd October on their calendar this season.

Brigham Young

Last Year

Since Bronco Mendenhall went 6-6 in his first season, the Cougars have been outstanding, going 43-9 and winning two conference titles and 3 bowl games. Last season they went 11-2 (7-1 MWC) for the third time in four years and beat mighty Oklahoma along the way. QB Max Hall led the way on offense, throwing for 3560 yards and 33 TDs, while Harvey Unga carried the load on the ground with 1087 yards and 11 TDs. The defense was 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring. Mendenhall is an excellent recruiter, scoring a massive coup in signing QB Jake Heaps, who had his pick of schools. The schools religious background ensures students are mostly focused on academics and athletics, and the players tend to be more disciplined and mature than in other schools. This, and some outstanding coaching, ensures that BYU can contend with pretty much anyone in the country. Expect more 10+ winning seasons in the immediate future.

Offense

The big question on campus is who will replace Max Hall, a three year starter and BYU's 2nd All-Time leading passer – a bigger achievement than one might imagine. While it's only matter of time before star recruit Heaps hits the field, ex-Utah State QB Riley Nelson (70% comp, 99 yds, 1 TD) will most likely kick off the season with Heaps backing him up. There are other decent QBs in reserve. Another big loss in the offseason was Harvey Unga leaving early for the NFL after personal issues led to his withdrawal from the school. Junior JJ Di Luigi (45-248-3) is capable and could surprise. Junior Bryan Kariya (55-199-2) will lead the way for him, and contribute some rushing, and there are a couple of freshmen who could make a bid for carries too. Four offensive line starters return to help out the new blood, which is good news. LT Matt Reynolds was 1st Team MWC, while LG Braden Hansen was a freshman All-American. RT Nick Alletto is experienced, and Terence Brown will play at RG again if he doesn't move to Center this season. If he stays put, the new Center will be redshirt freshman Houston Reynolds, who missed last season with a torn ACL. There is quality depth in reserve. O'Neill Chambers (32-376-1) returns at receiver after coming second on the team in receptions last season. Luke Ashworth (28-387-4) and McKay Jacobson (23-556-4) will chip in too. The receivers will need to step it up this season with TEs Dennis Pitta and Andrew George graduated. Redshirt freshmen Mike Muehlmann and Richard Wilson will split the job this season. Experience is this here with mostly freshmen, albeit highly regarded, on the depth chart. Di Luigi (22-270-4) and Kariya (16-186-2) were active receivers last season and their production should increase with the larger workload. The offense should drop in production this season with the loss of key players. The offensive line will ensure it doesn't fall too far though.

Defense

The defense returns only five starters from last season's excellent unit. NT Romney Fuga (40 tkls, 2 tfls, 1 sack) started 7 games while splitting time last season. Senior Vic So'oto (10 tkls, 3 tfls, 1 sack), has looked great in the offseason and will start at one End. Junior Matt Putnam (6 tkls, 1 sack) has experience and will start opposite him. Watch out for redshirt freshman Thomas Bryson to increase his playing time over the course of the season. There's some decent depth too. SLB Jordan Pendleton (52tkls, 3 tfls, 3 sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 INT) is the sole returning Linebacker, and is an excellent athlete. Senior Jordan Atkinson (7 tkls) will man the Weakside. The ILBs will be senior Shane Hunter (15 tkls, 1 tfl) and either sophomore Brandon Ogletree (19 tkls) or freshman Kyle Van Noy. There is some sterling talent ready to step in, but this is an inexperienced unit which must be a cause for concern. The secondary should be the strength of the defense this season. Both Corners return, Brian Logan (44 tkls, 4 tfls, 14 PBUs, 3 INTs) and Brandon Bradley (64 tkls, 4 PBUs). SS Andrew Rich (85 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 1 sack, 3 PBUs, 4 INTs) was 2nd Team MWC last season. The new FS will be junior Steven Thomas (6 tkls), but watch for redshirt freshman Jray Galea'i to make a push for playing time. Depth isn't as inexperienced as the other units. Athletically, this could be the best defense BYU has had in some years, but the inexperience factors can't be overlooked.

Special Teams

The special teams should be the most consistent unit, at least early on, in 2010. Kicker Mitch Payne is the model of consistency, having kicked 10 of 14 FGs for the second consecutive season. Punter Riley Stephenson (41.3 gross, 36.9 net) is also reliable. Both struggle with kickoffs, but neither is in danger of losing their spots. Chambers (25.6) and Di Luigi (24.0) did a good job returning kicks, but Chambers needs to do better on punt returns after averaging just 6.0 a return in 2009. The kick coverage unit allowed a TD return, but were okay otherwise while the punt coverage team were rock solid.

Next Season

This team is rich in talent and athleticism but short on experience. It's not all bad – the secondary will be strong; the offensive line will protect runners and passers; and QB Nelson has previous starting experience back in '06 with Utah State. His mobility is in asset. What could hurt this team is the schedule. The first seven games are: Washington at home, Air Force and Florida State away; offensive monster Nevada at home, a trip to improving Utah State; home to San Diego State; and at TCU. The also finish the season at Utah. If they can win 3 or 4 games in that opening stretch, a bowl game is pretty much assured as they have a four game kick against very beatable opponents afterwards. There is too much inexperience for another 10+ win season. Next year, though…

Colorado State

Last Year

The Rams were one of the top teams in the MWC at the turn of the century, but slipped into the middle of the pack. After a 7-6 season, including a bowl win over Fresno State, in coach Steve Fairchild's first season in '08, things were looking up for the Rams. Opening up the season 3-0 and beating Colorado and Nevada along the way just furthered expectations. Then things went horribly wrong. They didn't win another game and were 0-8 in the MWC. They weren't awful either (except against TCU). The offense moved the ball well enough, but the defense couldn't seem to get off the ball on third down while the special teams gave opposing teams good field position while missing too many manageable placekicks. Fairchild has done a good job recruiting and the team should improve.

Offense

The only person on CSU's roster who threw a pass last season is RB John Mosure. Whoever QBs for this season will be a freshman: either true Pete Thomas, a top recruit who's big, athletic and smart; or redshirt Nico Ranieri, a good runner and decent passer. Helping them will be a superb stable of Backs. UCLA transfer Raymond Carter will lead the way, but watch out for redshirt freshman Chris Nwoke, Leonard Mason (156-766-2) and Mosure (124-650-7). When the Rams use a Fullback, Zac Pauga (15-56-1) will lead the way. The offensive line is in flux with only one starter back, WT Paul Madsen. Joining him this season will be juniors WG Jake Gdowski and C Tyler McDermott, senior ST Mark Starr and either senior Ryan Griffith or junior Connor Smith at SG. There is some experience amongst the new starters, but the depth is very thin. The receivers are also a concern. Sophomore Byron Steele (2-60-0) and Tyson Liggett (17-253-3) will start with former RB Lou Greenwood (13-221-2) stepping in when a third receiver is needed. There is good talent in reserve, but not a lot of catches. TE Eric Peitz (14-114-3) is capable of better production and will get the chance with a new QB. Redshirt freshman Cameron Moss will back him up. Pauga (25-219-3) and Mosure (13-155-1) were part of the passing game last season. Expect the backs to contribute again this season. The offense will most likely struggle this season, but watch for them over the next couple of years.

Defense

The defense struggled last season, mostly due to injuries, but with 10 players back with solid starting experience, they should be much better in '10. Both tackles, Guy Miller (39 tkls, 4.5 tfls, 2 sacks, 1 PBU) and Ty Whittier (13tkls, 1 sack), but he'll be pushed by Nuku Latu (13 tkls, 1 tfl, 1.5 sacks) for playing time. Last year's starter at DE, Cory Macon (35 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 2.5 sacks), was 3rd Team MWC but may lose his spot to sophomore CJ James (16 tkls, 1 tfl, 2 sacks). The other End will be sophomore Broderick Sargent (7 tkls). This is decent sized line but lacks any star power. Linebacker is the opposite, and the Rams are loaded here. Ricky Brewer was suspended last year but returns to make plays from the Weakside. The MLB will be returnee Alex Williams (55 tkls, 3.5 tfls, 1 PBUs) and Mychal Sisson (91 tkls, 9.5 tfls, 6 sacks, 5 PBUs) will star again on the Strongside after being voted 2nd Team MWC last season. Depth is very good. The secondary should also be better, with a lot of starting experience returning. Momo Thomas (43 tkls, 1 tfl, 4 PBUs, 1 INT) returns at one corner and gets better every year. DeAngelo Wilkinson (27 tkls, 3 PBUs) has prior starting experience and will start full-time this year. Both Elijah-Blu Smith (74 tkls, 5 PBUs, 3 INTs), who was 3rd Team MWC, and Ivory Herd (37 tkls, 2 PBUs) return at FS and SS respectively. There is plenty of talent in reserve too.

Special Teams

Brian DeLine (12/16 FGs) missed three PATs and three FGs under 40 yards and needs to be more consistent in that range. Punter Pete Kontodiakos (40.9 gross, 31.6 net) could improve his placement and hang-time to help out the coverage unit. Mosure and Carter will return kicks and Thomas (6.6) will return punts. All have the ability to excel. Kick and punt coverage need to tighten up. This unit needs to help out the defense this season by ceding tougher field position.

Next Season

Fairchild has said he won't accept another 3-9 season, but will he have a choice this season. The OOC schedule isn't terrible – their annual battle with Colorado (in Denver this year); at Nevada; at Miami (Oh); and home to Idaho. None are sure wins, but all are winnable. Within the conference they must travel to San Diego State and Wyoming which are winnable games, which could hinder a bowl shot. The defense should be tough and the running game has explosive potential, so an improvement on last year's schedule is likely. Whether they can muster enough wins for a bowl shot is up to whoever wins the QB battle.

Nevada-Las Vegas

Last Year

The Rebels came close to a bowl game last season, going 5-7 (3-5 MWC) and losing two close games to Oregon State and Wyoming. The reason for falling short is obvious – the passing game was solid, but had to carry the show as there was little running attack and the defense was weak, particularly against the run. Coach Mike Sanford was finally dismissed after winning just 16 games in five seasons, although he seems to have the team heading upwards. Bobby Hauck, who was incredibly successful coaching FCS team Montana to the three championship games in a seven year span, takes over. He hopes to end the streak of coaches who end their career prematurely at UNLV.

Offense

The Rebels have a couple of good QBs with starting experience here, but both are spread QBs, whereas Hauck runs a pro-style offense. For that reason, the spread will still be used this season, but phased out slowly. Omar Clayton (60.1% comp, 2230 yds, 13 TDs, 12 INTs) is the unquestioned starter – he's mobile (76-238-3), smart and accurate, although he needs to cut down on last year's interception total and overcome the injury bug. Mike Clausen (59.1% comp, 463 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) will back him up. He is also accurate and mobile (69-288-7), but less experienced. The running game was generally ineffective last year and the returning leading rusher, Channing Trotter (114-541-9) is currently third on the depth chart behind junior CJ Cox (50-173-1) and redshirt freshman Bradley Randle. Former Linebacker David Blair will be the Fullback. Hauck like power running and it will be interesting to see how he introduces this to his gameplans. Four starters return on an offensive line that was adept at pass blocking (15 sacks) but poor run-blocking. LT Matt Murphy has caught the attention of pro scouts, while C John Gianninoto and RT Evan Marchal have plenty of experience. Sophomore LG Jason Heath started eight games a freshman and the new RG, sophomore Doug Zismann played in five. There's some good talent in reserve, although experience is limited. The line should run block better this year with Hauck at the helm. Receiver will not be a problem with a couple of playmakers, Phillip Payne (58-661-7) and Michael Johnson (43-484-1), back. There is good speed and athleticism among the reserves and the passing game should thrive in 2010. The Tight End position will be making a regular appearance after being forgotten for so long, but junior Austin Harrington (2-9-0) is good enough to be reliable safety valve. Junior Kyle Watkins (3-24-0) is a capable reserve. Trotter caught 19 passes last season, so expect the backs to contribute in that regard again. If Hauck can get a running game going, this offense could be dangerous. It would help a struggling defense too.

Defense

Five starters return from last year's unit, but only three have reclaimed their spot. DT Isaako Aaitui (31 tkls, 2 tfls, 1.5 sacks) is one returnee and is on NFL watchlists. He's a load in the middle. He'll be joined this season by 350lb senior Ramsey Feagai (10 tkls), a part-time player the last three years. The Ends were a big problem last year but former JUCO All-American BJ Bell, who missed last season through injury, and senior Daniel Mareko (1 tkl) should be an upgrade. There is little depth. The Linebackers should be good this year. MLB Ronnie Paulo (59 tkls, 3.5 tfls, 3 PBUs) will be joined by senior SLB Calvin Randleman (6 tkls), who played mostly special teams last season, and either junior Nate Carter (42 tkls, .5 sack) or Starr last year's starter Fuimaono (67 tkls, 3.5 tfls, 1 sack, 2 PBUs). There is decent reserve strength too. CB Quinton Pointer (72 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 2 sacks, 4 PBUs) leads a secondary that will have three new starters. Junior Will Chandler (12 tkls) will start opposite him. Mike Grant (26 tkls, 1 tfl, 3 PBUs, 1 INT) moves to FS from Corner and has looked good so far. The new SS will be Senior Alex De Giacomo (60 tkls, .5 tfl, 1 PBU, 1 INT) who started six games last season. The reserve strength is good and Hauck believes this unit to be the strength of the defense.

Special Teams

Kyle Watson, who kicked and punted for the Rebels last season, has graduated, so replacements must be found. Nobody won a job in the spring, but freshman Nolan Kohorst will at least punt if he doesn't win both jobs. Senior kickoff specialist Ben Jaekle might be an alternative at Kicker. CB Deante' Purvis (23.3 ypr, TD) will return kicks, as will Johnson. Johnson will also return punts. Kick coverage needs to improve, but punt coverage was excellent. If a specialist or two can be found, this unit should be decent in 2010.

Next Season

Some people were surprised by UNLV's failings on defense last season, as they have excellent speed on defense. If the problem was merely the system, perhaps a new coach can turn them around in a hurry. The offense should be better this season, and in improved running game will help take the pressure off the defense. They'll be strong up the middle again and should be better on the edge. The OOC schedule is harsh, starting with a home game against Wisconsin, at Idaho, home against Nevada, at West Virginia, before finishing at Hawaii. These are tough games and may hamper the Rebels bowl hopes. In conference, they must travel to Utah and BYU, but get TCU and Air Force in Vegas. Even with a thirteen game schedule, the Rebels may not win enough games for a shot at bowl. Give Hauck time though.

New Mexico

Last Year

After producing a hard-nosed, power running team that regularly attended bowl games, Rocky Long resigned in 2008 after a 4-8 record. In stepped first time Head Coach Mike Locksley who has a reputation as an outstanding co-ordinator and recruiter. Last year, though, he tried to fit the proverbial square peg into a round hole, introducing the spread offense to a team built for a pro-style running game. As a result, he struggled through a hard 1-11 (1-7 MWC) season. He did lose three close games and uncovered some players who give hope that the team will be vastly improved this season. While both the offense and defense struggled, the biggest problem was lack of physicality that was predominant in previous Lobo teams. He intends to return to the physical nature (while retaining the spread), and had a good recruiting class more suited to his offense. Things should be better in 2010 and beyond.

Offense

The offense got better towards the end of the season as the team became more comfortable with the system. Unfortunately, QB Donovan Porterie has graduated, leaving sophomore BR Holbrook, juniors Grad Gruner and Tate Smith and a bunch freshman to battle for the job. Holbrook (55.9% comp, 170 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs), last year's reserve, has had a great offseason and looks to be favorite to start, just don't ask him to run. Gruner started 10 games in '08 and is a better runner than passer. Locksley is holding off on naming a starter until he sees what his incoming freshmen can do. Both are perfect for the offense. One strength this season will be the running attack, with a trio of solid runners to choose from. Desmond Dennis (78-427-3) is fast and explosive, as well as tough between the tackles. James Wright (50-291-2) is a power runner but has some speed. Kasey Carrier (61-269-0) has great vision and can score from anywhere. On the offensive line, LT Byron Bell has hardly missed a snap since he arrived on campus and is NFL good. LG Karlin Givens is the only other returning starter, and looked improved in the offseason. Redshirt freshman Dillon Farrell has been groomed to start but most hold off the challenge from junior Mike Muniz. At RG, senior Mike Cannon has starting experience, as has probable RT, senior Maurice Mears. This unit has looked solid so far in the offseason. The receiving corps is solid but unspectacular, and a playmaker needs to step forward. Ty Kirk (36-427-2) was the leading receiver last year and should increase his production. Bryant Williams (26-283-1) will take one spot while senior Chris Hernandez (14-177-0) and sophomore Quintell Solomon (13-122-1) will battle for the final position, but expect both to see the field. Expect this group to step it up a notch with a year's experience in the new system under their belt. TE Lucas Reed (17-212-1) started as a freshman and is a star in the making. Sophomore Brandon Mader is a much better blocker and will see the field this season. Watch for this offense to be vastly improved this season.

Defense

The defensive line has three starters returning from a group that was pretty solid last season. DE Jonathon Rainey (52 tkls, 6 tfls, 9.5 sacks, 1 PBU), a 2nd Team MWC pick, is the star of the bunch, and works well opposite Jaymar Latchison (46 tkls, 4 tfls, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT). Peter Gardner (39 tkls, 4 tfls, 1 sack, 3 PBUs) was a rock in the middle, and this season will be joined by Illinois transfer Reggie Ellis. Watch for blue-chip recruit Calvin Smith to make a push for playing time too. This unit is loaded in reserve and will be the strength of the defense this season. Only one Linebacker returns, but it's 1st Team MWC MLB Carmen Messina (162 tkls, 5 tfls, 3 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 INT). Sophomores Joe Stoner (18 tkls, .5 tfl, 1 sack) and Spencer Merritt (11 tkls) should start at SLB and WLB respectively, although Merritt could be pushed by senior Terel Anyaibe (11 tkls, .5 tfl). Cornerback will be strong in 2010 with four experienced players. Both of last year's starters, Anthony Hooks (44 tkls, 1.5 tfls, 2 PBUs) and Nathan Enriquez (23 tkls, 2 tfls, 3 PBUs, 2 INTs), who missed six games through injury, return. There will be a battle at safety. Bubba Forrest (47 tkls, 1 tfl, 1 PBU) will probably get the nod at SS after playing extensively there last season, and sophomore Freddy Young (4 tkls) should be the new FS, although former RB AJ Butler (50-177-1, 32-213-0) is an excellent athlete and could take over at either position. There is a glut of incoming freshmen and this unit could develop into a strength sooner rather than later. This defense has the potential to be much better this season.

Special Teams

James Aho (19/21 PATs, 13/21 FGs) slipped a little in his sophomore year, but he' solid inside the 40. A new punter is needed. Redshirt freshman Ben Skaer has the inside track on the position. Kirk and Carrier will probably return kicks, with Williams returning punts. The coverage teams aren't particularly bad, but could improve.

Next Season

The Lobos' schedule opens at Oregon and then home to Texas Tech and Utah. If they make it through here, the middle of their schedule is manageable, with non-conference foes UTEP at home and at New Mexico State, and the bottom tier of the MWC. They then finish with an equally cruel three game streak - at Air Force and BYU, then home for TCU. If they're going to make a bowl game they either need to sweep the middle of the schedule or pull off some upsets. More likely they'll be much improved, but only to the tune of about 3 of 4 wins.

San Diego State

Last Year

The Aztecs have been a disappointment in the 21st century. They have no shortage of talent as seen by their NFL pipeline status, but they haven't been to a bowl game since '98. Chuck Long, the coach most recently charged with turning them around was fired after just three years and a 2-10 record. Brady Hoke stepped in last season after taking Ball State to a 12-2 record and their first ever BCS ranking. He brought with him a quality coaching staff, but still managed just a 4-8 (2-6 MWC) record. Part of this is down to installing new systems, but the running game never got going, leaving QB Ryan Lindley to carry the load. With some decent recruiting to go with some already impressive talent, and a year of experience in the new system, San Diego could be one to watch this season.

Offense

Lindley (54.7% comp, 3054 yds, 23 TDs, 16 INTs) is one of the top QBs in the MWC, but was inconsistent last season. With a better running game and healthier receivers, he could blow up in his junior year. There are only freshmen in reserve, so keeping him healthy is a must. Last year's leading rusher, Brandon Sullivan (154-558-4), is moving to Fullback to make way for freshman Ronnie Hillman, who's finally solved his eligibility issues. Senior Davon Brown (15-31-0) and sophomore Walter Kazee (86-371-2) will back him up. None of these weigh more than 190 lbs, so expect Sullivan to look after the short yardage chores. The offensive line that struggled to open holes for runners, but only allowed 16 sacks, only returns two starters – LT Tommie Draheim and C Trask Iosefa, who's started all but one game since he arrived on campus. The new blockers are junior LG Mike Matamua and sophomore Nik Embernate who both started 8 games last year, and JUCO Juan Bolanos, one of the better JUCO linemen. There is good experience down the depth chart and the addition of further JUCOs makes this unit a potential strength going into the season. Vincent Brown was injured in Game 7 yet still managed 45 catches for 778 yards and 6 TDs, and was also voted 2nd Team MWC. At full health he will provide a big play target for Lindley. DeMarco Sampson (62-851-8) had a good season, but should perform even better as the number two target. He was voted 1st Team MWC. The reserves got increased game time which will bode well for next season. TE Alston Umuolo (22-243-3) exploits the increased attention paid to the receivers well and could be even better this season. Redshirt freshman Gavin Escobar will back him up. Sullivan was only a part-time receiver, but the speedy Hillman may be used more. If the line clicks, and it should, the Aztecs will have a potent offense this season.

Defense

The defense wasn't terrible, it just had terrible games. This inconsistency might be ironed out with seven returning starters. BJ Williams (32 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 2 sacks) returns at one spot, and will be backed up Jacob Tauanuu (23 tkls, 3 tfls, 2 sacks, 2 PBUs), who started opposite him last season. Senior Ernie Lawson (22 tkls, 4.5 tfls, 2 sacks) moves out from DT. His size suits the 3-3-5 scheme the Aztecs run. Junior DT Jerome Long (23 tkls, 1.5 sacks) played in all 12 games and has prior starting experience. Depth is pretty experienced, but lacks size. Miles Burris (58 tkls, 4.5 tfls, 1.5 sacks) was decent at OLB last season, but has two new running mates in junior OLB Logan Ketchum (14 tkls) and senior MLB Marcus Yarbrough (41 tkls, 3 tfls, 1 PBU), who played regularly last season. The reserves have seen little action. Four returning starters in the secondary should make this the strength of the defense. Leon McFadden (26 tkls, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Jose Perez (27 tkls, 3 PBUs) started at Corner last season, but McFadden is being pushed by junior Romero Horn and may not regain his spot. SS Dey Juan Hemmings (34 tkls, 4 tfls, 1 INT) was injured in camp and may not be 100% at the start of the season. Senior Darryn Lewis (33 tkls, 3 PBUs) will take his spot if he's not ready to go. FS Brandon Davis (33 tkls, 1 tfl, 1 sack, 5 PBUs) is a former WR and is growing into his new role. The Rover will be senior Andrew Preston (46 tkls, 3 tfls, 1 sack, 3 PBUs) who has the size to mix it up at LB too. This could be a stronger defense, and an improved offense can only help.

Special Teams

Senior Bryan Shields will be the new Kicker after the graduation of Lane Yoshida (10/17 FGs). He has yet to kick in a game, but should be an upgrade on the inconsistent Yoshida. Punter Brian Stahovich (43.8 gross, 38.0 net) was 2nd Team MWC and should battle for all-conference honors this season. He's a reliable weapon. Brown (20.0 ypr) will probably return kicks again this season, with Preston King (6.6) back returning punts. Both need to improve and could see newcomers taking their jobs. Kick coverage needs some serious offseason work, but the punt coverage was sterling courtesy of Stahovich. It should be a better unit this season.

Next Season

SDSU has enough talent to get to a bowl game this season and move up in the conference standings. The running game doesn't have to be great, just enough to take the pressure off Lindley. Likewise, the defense doesn't need to stonewall opponents, just do enough for a potentially explosive offense to win games for them. More consistency would be nice too. The OOC schedule is decent, starting with home games against FCS Nicholls State, then trips to New Mexico State and Missouri, before home against Utah State and into a bye week. A 3-1 start to the season would set them up for conference play nicely. The away games are BYU, New Mexico, Wyoming and TCU, and two (maybe three) wins are possible there. This could be the year the Aztecs return the promised land of bowl contention.

Texas Christian

Last Year

Gary Patterson has done a fantastic job here, winning 10+ games in six of his nine seasons. Last season he had his best team ever and was expected to be a BCS buster. The Horned Frogs didn't disappoint, going 12-0 and steamrolling everyone except Clemson and Air Force, a getting to #3. In the Fiesta Bowl against fellow BCS outsider Boise State, they looked flat and lost 17-10, with their vaunted rushing attack doing nothing and the normally accurate QB Andy Dalton throwing three picks. Bowl game aside, they were a fantastic team, ranking 7th in total offense and 5th in scoring, while ranking 1st in total defense and 6th in scoring. They've only lost six starters, although they were key players, but Patterson usually reloads with little dropoff, and TCU should be a fly in the BCS ointment for years to come.

Offense

MWC Offensive Player of the Year Dalton (61.6% comp, 2756 yds, 23 TDs, 8 INTs) has evolved from game manager to game winner over the last three years, and entering his fourth season as starter, he could be dominant. He adds a valuable running dimension (116-512-3) and operates this offense to perfection. There could be in issue if he goes down as his backups, either sophomore Yogi Gallegos or redshirt freshman Casey Pachall have any game experience. One area that won't be a concern is Running Back, where TCU are loaded. Ed Wesley (101-638-4) and Matthew Tucker (105-680-8) will share the bulk of the load, but watch for redshirt freshman Waymon James to makes some noise this season. If a Fullback is required, Luke Shivers (2-5-1) will step in. Four starting offensive linemen return to protect Dalton (12 sacks) and pave the way for the runners (5.2 ypc). Pro prospect LT Marcus Cannon, who slides over from RT, and C Jack Kirkpatrick, who's on the Rimington Trophy watch-list, lead the way. LG Kyle Dooley and RG Josh Vernon are no slouches and will be joined by new Right Tackle junior Jeff Olson. Cannon or Kirkpatrick going down would be a setback, but the depth is tremendous. The receiving corps would post far better stats in nearly any other offense, but they are excellent. Jeremy Kerley (44-532-2, 3 TDs rushing) is explosive, Jimmy Young (33-517-3) is big and makes the tough grabs and Antoine Hicks (23-478-6, 4 TDs rushing) is a TD machine. Bart Johnson (33-410-2) is a steady 4th receiver. Depth, unsurprisingly, is top notch. TE Evan Frosch (3-33-0) is a superb blocker, but little used as a receiver. He can catch if the need arises. Junior Logan Brock backs him up. This offense could be even better this season.

Defense

Three linemen return from last year's unit, but unfortunately, Jerry Hughes is not one of them. Sophomore Ross Forrest (1 tkl) is the man charged with replacing him. He missed almost all of last season with injury. Wayne Daniels (50 tkls, 3.5 tfls, 5.5 sacks, 3 PBU) returns opposite him after being voted 1st Team MWC last season. The Tackles are Kelly Griffin (31 tkls, 5 tfls, .5 sack, 2 PBUs) and Cory Grant (25 tkls, 3 tfls, 2.5 sacks), who was 2nd Team MWC. Depth is good but they don't appear to have a player of Hughes' caliber. Darryl Washington is also gone to the NFL, but Tank Carder (89 tkls, 8 tfls, 2 sacks, 10 PBUs, 1 INT) at MLB is more than capable. Tanner Brock (32 tkls, 1 tfl) moves in at SLB after playing in every game last season. There are solid recruits throughout the depth chart. The secondary loses both starting Corners, each of whom was a four year starter. Replacing them will be Jason Teague (22 tkls, 1.5 tfls, 3 PBUs, 2 INTs) and Greg McCoy (22 tkls, 4 PBUs, 2 INTs), both of whom appear capable. FS Tejay Johnson (59 tkls, 1 tfl, 2 PBUs, 3 INTs) was voted 2nd Team MWC and Rover Alex Ibiloye (70 tkls, .5 tfl, 1 PBU) had a solid year. Tyler Lutrell (35 tkls, 1 tfl, 1 sack, 2 PBUs, 1 INT) returns at SS, but will be pushed by sophomore Jurell Thompson (3 tkls). This is the one area where depth is a question, as there will freshmen in reserve, particularly at Corner.

Special Teams

Kicker (61/63 PATs, 15/18 FGs – 48 long) Ross Evans is as reliable as they come and was 1st Team MWC last season. Punter Anson Kelton (37.5 gross, 34.8 net) is better than his gross suggests. He has excellent placement too. Jeremy Kerley is a playmaker returning both kicks (26.6) and punts (14.4, 2 TDs). Greg McCoy (35.9, 1 TD) is an excellent complement on KRs. Coverage units are solid. This is one of the best special team units in the country and should continue to excel in 2010.

Next Season

The Horned Frogs had a fantastic season last year, but the bowl game left a sour taste in their mouths. With a senior-laden team returning for one last hurrah, there only expectations are BCS or bust. They're more than capable of a run at BCS title game, due to change in key positions among the top BCS teams, and have the schedule to do it. The OOC opponents are Oregon State, FCS Tennessee Tech and Baylor (all at home), and a trip to SMU. They get BYU and Air Force at home in the conference, so the toughest game on the schedule is at Utah on 6th November. The Utes are rebuilding their defense, but TCU haven't won there since they joined the MWC. Assuming Oregon State don't trip them up, this game could decide their BCS future.

Utah

Last Year

With the Utes at 6-1 and ranked #19 in the BCS, Kyle Whittingham pulled a surprise move by benching seasoned junior QB Terrance Cain in favor of freshman and QB of the future Jordan Wynn. Utah finished the season 4-2 but will benefit this season. If the Pointsettia Bowl is anything to go by (shredding California for 338 yards), the future looks bright. Utah's offense only finished 54th in the country, but 34th in scoring, but the defense was 19th in total defense and 23rd in scoring. Whittingham has brought in plenty of talent, and Utah will continue to compete for BCS shots for the immediate future.

Offense

Wynn (58.1% comp, 1329 yds, 8 TDs, 4 INTs) did an okay job when he took over, and should be even better in 2010. Cain (63.7% comp, 1624 yds, 11 TDs, 5 INTs) did little wrong last season and provides a more than capable reserve. Cain is by far the better runner (87-318-2). Whoever is in at QB has the pleasure of handing off to the two best RBs in the conference. Eddie Wide (203-1069-12) will get the start after being voted 1st Team MWC, but Matt Asiata (74-330-4) will get plenty of carries after looking terrific before tearing his ACL in Week 4. They complement each other nicely. Sophomore Sausan Shakerin (36-210-1) will see time too. Four starters return on the offensive line – LG Caleb Schlauderaff was 1st Team MWC; C Zane Taylor was 2nd; RG Tevita Stevens had a fine freshman season; and RT Tony Bergstrom could slide to LT if needed. The new LT will be either JUCO John Cullen or redshirt freshman Percy Taumoeleau. There is a good mix of talent and experience in reserve. David Reed will be missed at receiver, but Jereme Brooks (56-696-7), who was 2nd Team MWC, will take over as the top target. Joining him will be senior Shaky Smithson (13-100-0) and sophomore Luke Matthews (9-108-0). The reserve talent is the envy of many teams. Sophomore TE Kendrick Moeai (4-77-2), who started five last year, will start this season and could be a big play threat in the middle of the field. Senior Brad Clifford (1-(-2)-0) will back him up, but doesn't provide the same receiving threat. Both are excellent blockers. The backs played a role in the passing game and that should continue this season. If Wynn progresses as expected, the offense will be tough to stop in the coming season.

Defense

With only four starters back, the Utes are essentially rebuilding their defense. Fortunately, good recruiting and players returning from LDS missions means this shouldn't be too painful a process, but there should some dropoff from last season's unit. NT Sealver Siliga (49 tkls, 5.5 tfls, 1 sack, 4 PBUs) is one of the MWC's better performers and will be joined at Tackle by sophomore Dave Kruger (37 tkls, 4.5 tfls, 1.5 sacks) who started six games last year. Derrick Shelby (44 tkls, 5 tfls, 3 sacks) returns at one End, but isn't a great pass rusher. It is hoped that senior Junior Tui-one (9 tkls, 1.5 sacks) can get after opposing QBs. There is solid depth, including top JUCO recruit James Aiono, who could see the field sooner rather than later. There are no returnees at Linebacker due to the loss Nai Fotu in spring camp, but they should be okay there. Junior Matt Martinez (6 tackles) is 100% after a knee injury cut short his '08 season and slowed him last year. JuniorWLB JJ Williams (20 tkls, 1 PBU) started one game last year after returning from a mission. Former QB and now SLB senior Chad Manis (4 tkls, 1 tfl, 1 sack) is primed for a full-time role. Depth is a mixture of limited experience and top recruits. Only Corner Brandon Burton (47 tkls, 3 tfls, 1 sack, 10 PBUs, 1 INT) returns in the secondary, but he's a good building block. Opposite him will be senior Lamar Chapman (46 tkls, 3 tfls, 1 sack, 6 PBUs, 2 INTs), who was the Nickelback last season. Senior Justin Taplin-Ross (29 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 3 PBUs) will be the SS, while the new FS will be either junior Greg Bird (2 tkls) or freshman Damian Payne. Most of the depth here is young and inexperienced and, outside of the two corners, could be a problem in 2010.

Special Teams

Both Kicker Joe Phillips (38/39 PATs, 20/22 FGs – 48 long) and Punter Sean Sellwood (42.9 gross, 37.0 net) return and both are among the best in the conference, if not the country. Smithson does a good job returning both kicks (24.7) and punts (9.5). WR DeVonte Christopher (24.1) will help out on KRs again. Kick coverage is solid, but the punt coverage unit allowed a TD. Despite this, the unit will continue to be good in 2010.

Next Season

The offense should be fine right out of the gate, but the defense may take some time to get into a groove. This could spoil any BCS plans, as they start out against Pittsburgh (at home). The rest of the OOC schedule is a home game against San Jose State, but away to Iowa State and Notre Dame. Some of the Mountain West teams have improved offenses too. The toughest away game is at Air Force, and they get TCU and BYU at home. Despite the losses, this is still Utah and they should be ready to play in September, especially with that offense to carry them. A bowl game is almost assured, but winning the conference title may be beyond them this season.

Wyoming

Last Year

Some may look at the Cowboy's ratings last season – 109th in scoring; 107th in total offense; 73rd in scoring defense; 81st in total defense – and wonder how Coach Dave Christensen managed to lead these guys to a 7-6 (4-4 MWC) record. The simple answer is turnovers – their +8 turnover margin was 17th in the country. But there was more to it that this. When they were good, they were solid but never explosive. When they were bad, they were really bad. In their six losses they were shutout three times and scored only 10 points in each of the other three losses. They also won five games by a total of 16 points. The biggest problem on offense was the lack of speed, particularly at WR. There were also many young starters, including Austyn Carta-Samuels at QB. The team should be much stronger in 2010, but can they improve their record?

Offense

Carta-Samuels (58.6 % comp, 1953 yds, 10 TDs, 5 INTs) was solid in 2010, but nothing more. Apart from the occasional rookie mistake, he took care of the football and looks like he has a bright future. He's big, strong-armed and pretty mobile (142-366-3). Expect more from him this year. Senior Dax Crum, who started five games in '08, will be his primary reserve. They're in good shape at RB with Alvester Alexander (136-678-7). He shared the load with Brandon Stewart last season, but will have an increased workload with Stewart's graduation. He has good speed and toughness, and should thrive as a workhorse. Junior James Davis, who has yet to see action as a Cowboy, and a host of freshmen will back him up. The offensive line was pretty poor last season, averaging only 3.6 per rush and allowing 37 sacks. Three starters return, LT Clayton Kirven, LG Sam Sterner and Center Nick Carlson. The new starters on the right side are junior Guard John Hutchins and sophomore Tackle Josh Leonard. They really need to pick it up this season or the passing attack will be severely limited again. Outside of David Leonard (77-705-3), the receivers weren't great last season. Zach Bolger (28-314-1) was second on the team and starts again this season. Mazi Ogbonna was plucked from the JUCO ranks to add speed to the unit. The fourth receiver will be sophomore Chris McNeill (17-117-0), who started seven games last season. Whenever a TE is required, David Tooley (7-115-1) will step in. He's not a great blocker, but he's capable of much more as a receiver. Alexander wasn't used much as a receiver, but is capable and may see more passes his way as Carta-Samuels grows more comfortable in the offense.

Defense

Seven starters return on defense and Christensen has worked hard to improve the overall speed of the unit, which moves to a 4-3 this season. OLBs Josh Biezuns (65 tkls, 6 tfls, 3.5 sacks, 1 PBU) and Gabe Knapton (128 tkls, 4 tfls, .5 sack, 3 PBUs), who was 2nd Team MWC, will move to End this season. Both are big enough to handle the job. The Tackles will be new, and sophomore Mike Purcell (9 tfls) and redshirt freshman Patrick Mertens have a lot to prove. There is a lot of youth in depth too. MLB Brian Hendricks (116 tkls, 3 PBUs, 1.5 sacks) is the only returning Linebacker but he's solid. The WLB will be sophomore Ghaali Muhammad (21 tkls, 1 tfl, .5 sack, 1 PBU, 1 INT), who started two games last season, and senior Keith Lewis (1 tkl) will man the Strongside. Depth is young, but athletic. The whole starting secondary returns and should be the strength of the defense again. The Gipson brothers, Marcell (71 tkls, 1 tfl, 2 sacks, 7 PBUs) and Tashaun (59 tkls, 2 tfls, 6 PBUs, 3 INTs), return at Corner and are an excellent pairing. FS Chris Prosinski (140, 3.5 tfls, 6 PBUs) will contend for MWC Player of the Year honors and SS Shamiel Gray (98 tkls, 2.5 tfls, 3 PBUs, 3 INTs) fitted in like a multi-year vet in his freshman season. The reserve strength lacks experience, and injuries could pose a major problem. Christensen is banking on the increased speed and the extra tackle solving many of their defensive issues, but the youth in key areas up front and lack of depth may hurt over the course of the season.

Special Teams

Kicker Ian Watts (19/21 PATs, 12/15 FGs – 43 long) was a pleasant surprise in his freshman season, nailing three game winners and was perfect inside the 40. Punter Austin McCoy (43.3 gross, 38.2 net) is excellent, placing 29 punts inside the 20. He can fill in for Watts if need be, making 4/6 FGs last season. Marcell Gipson (22.6) was okay returning kicks, but David Leonard (12.9) was better returning punts. The kick coverage allowed a TD and had their off days, but the punt coverage was superb. This should continue to be a decent unit in 2010.

Next Season

Despite the team still being on the youthful side, they will be greatly improved this season. The problem isn't whether the team is better, but they've a brutal schedule that may cause a step back instead. After a home opener against FCS Southern Utah, they travel to Texas, have home games against Boise State and Air Force, trips to Toledo (not so bad) and TCU, home to Utah and then away to BYU. The next game is home to San Diego State who should be greatly improved too. If the Cowboys can pull 7 wins out of that schedule, Christensen should be in the running for Coach of the Year.

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